Statistics

snake-oil-salesman
On Thursday I posted what I though was a fun little piece with some interesting statistics about how much is consumed on Super Bowl Sunday. In The Super Bowl: By The Numbers, I selected a few of the fun statistics that had been posted a few years earlier in a post on the blog Tree Hugger. Because it was “just for fun,” I didn’t question their statistics or look to see where they came from.

But it looks like I should have, as a few trustworthy commenters have pointed out that one of those factoids doesn’t make sense. The statistic in question? That Americans drink 325.5 million Gallons of beer on Super Sunday. As was pointed out, that math doesn’t really stand up to scrutiny. As Jess put it: “Doesn’t that equal over ten 12 oz. bottles of beer for every man, woman and child in the country? Or if only the 151 million watching the game are drinking, close to a case of beer for every viewer. And, at over 10 million barrels, 5% of all the beer sold in the US all year long is consumed in one day?” So what’s going on?

The estimated population of America in January 2010, when this number was first published was an estimated 308.4 million people. Today, according to the Census Bureau’s Population Clock we’re closing in on 313 million.

325.5 million gallons is roughly 41,664,000,000 ounces, or 3,472,000,000 12-oz. bottles (that’s nearly 3.5 billion bottles) or 2,604,000,000 pint glasses (2.6 billion pints). So assuming the 2010 population, that means each man, woman and child would have to drink 11.258 bottles of beer during the Super Bowl to make that math work. In pints, it would amount to 8.44 pints per person.

But, of course, kids aren’t drinking so let’s take them out of the equation. The census bureau states that in 2010 there were 234,564,000 adults in America (which, you have to laugh, is 18-year olds and above). Since apart from being allowed to drink alcohol, U.S. citizens are considered adults at age 18, I don’t have any statistics for 21 and above. But alright, let’s use that figure; after all the neo-prohibitionists keep claiming our youth are a bunch of drunks anyway. Assuming the 234.5 million figure, each adult would have to drink nearly 15 bottles of beer each or just over 11 pints.

And despite evil alcohol advertising, not every adult chooses to drink alcohol. But how many? That’s trickier. CBS reported in 2010 that 60% of American drink alcohol while a Rasmussen Report in November 2010 found that 29% said they never drink alcohol, meaning 71% do. Additional studies report findings that range widely, so it’s pretty hard to pin down an exact number. So for our purposes let’s examine 60% and 70%. 60% of 234.5 million is 140,736,000 and 70% is 164,194,800. So depending on whose number you accept adult American drinkers had 24.7 bottles (just over a case) or 21.2 bottles (a few bottles shy of a case). For 16-oz. servings, it’s between 18.5 and almost 16 pints. Even drilled down that far, that’s some Brobdingnagian drinking on the part of every American for the Super Bowl.

So from just about every angle, that 325.5 million gallons of beer on one day factoid appears to be a complete fantasy. It doesn’t seem physically possible that Americans could consume that much, even if they were so inclined. So who’s the Snake Oil Salesman selling that lie?

snake-oil-salesman

To Tree Hugger’s credit, they did include links at the bottom of their original post under the headline References, where the links take you to the sources they used. They’re a bit of a mishmash, and I had to essentially look at each one to sort it out, but eventually I found the source of the beer figure. Regular readers will not be surprised to learn that it came from Alcohol Justice, back in the day when they were still called the Marin Institute. As soon as I saw that name, I knew it was probably them. When you click on the link, you can download the 2010 “Fact” Sheet from their ridiculous “Free the Bowl” campaign. And there on page 4 is “Americans consume more than 325.5 million gallons of beer during the Super Bowl.” While many of the factoids there are footnoted with the source, this one, of course, is not. So where did they get it? I have to assume they just made it up, since it’s so absurd a figure.

I’m constantly amazed that an organization that claims to hold the alcohol industry “accountable” for what it calls lies and exaggerations, can be so utterly lacking in its own truthiness. Because that number simply can’t be true, and they can’t possibly be unaware that it’s not true. If you’re insisting that others be truthful, I’d think at the very least that you should apply that same standard to yourself. At the very least, it’s hypocritical.

And that’s also why it’s so insidious. They make up a number, put out a press release, which is then picked up and disseminated uncritically by someone either unfamiliar or unaware of their agenda. Who knows how many other news organizations, websites, blogs, etc. cited that statistic. And each one of them, like Tree Hugger, has the potential to spread it again, without the original source. Even though they cited it, however vaguely, most people wouldn’t even notice or question it. Many probably passed it along without even citing where it came from, and in short order it’s out there and people believe it. So that’s my mea culpa. I was hoodwinked by the propaganda. I should have looked at that number more closely, and the source of it, as well. I was just trying to have a bit of fun with the Super Bowl. Serves me right, I guess. So now you know.

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The Super Bowl: By The Numbers

by Jay Brooks on February 2, 2012 · 4 comments

in Just For Fun

super-bowl-xlvi-2012
You usually see this kind of list for Oktoberfest; how much beer, how many sausages, etc. But Tree Hugger put together a list of what’s consumed during the Super Bowl: By the Numbers: Super Bowl Facts and Figures. The statistics are from 2010′s big game, but I feel confident they’re close enough. Here’s the most important numbers, about the beer.

  • 325.5 million: Gallons of beer drank by Americans that day.
  • 493: Number of Olympic-sized swimming pools that could be filled with all that beer.

A few more:

  • $5.6 billion: Amount consumers will spend on Super Bowl related items.
  • 1 billion: Number of chicken wings consumed on Super Bowl Sunday.
  • 194 million: Approximate number of blades of grass on the football field.
  • 151.6 million: Number of people who will watch at least part of the game.
  • 28 million: Pounds of potato chips consumed.
  • 293,000: Number of miles of potato chips, laid end to end, consumed during the game.
  • 232: Number of countries and territories in which the game will be broadcast.
  • 34: Number of languages the game is broadcast in.
  • 1: Number of languages in which the word “football” doesn’t mean “soccer.”

Check out the rest of the list on Tree Hugger.

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spirits-wine-beer
The Distilled Spirits Council, a trade organization for producers of distilled spirits, just released their annual report on how spirits are doing relative to the other alcoholic beverages. Vodka continues to lead the spirits parade, with rum in second and tequila in third.

alcohol-sales-2011

While beer continues to be the most popular adult beverage, spirits once again took market share from beer, which was up 4% by sales in 2011 over 2010. According to their figures, beer currently enjoys 49.3% of the alcohol market, with spirits having 33.6% and wine 17.1%. [Note: I can't account for the 0.1% difference in the two charts. They're supposedly taken from the same source, though the one below is directly from the Distilled Spirits Council.]

spirits-wine-beer-2011

While 49.3% sounds pretty good, the year before it was 49.8%

spirits-wine-beer-2010

And in 2000, only 11 years ago, it was 55.5%, meaning beer has lost 6.2% marketshare in just over a decade. Hey, beer people; you’re just not pulling your weight. Drink a few more beers tonight. A can (or bottle or pint) a day, that’s all we ask.

spirits-wine-beer-2000

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coors-light
I’m not exactly sure why this appears to be such big news, but it seems to be everywhere. Beer Marketer’s Insights is reporting that, based upon estimated numbers for 2011, Coors Light has overtaken Budweiser to become the 2nd best-selling beer in America. According to the report, “[t]his is the first time in almost 20 years, since 1993, that AB didn’t have top 2 brands.” But I note that according to IRI data, Miller Lite held the #2 spot at least as recently as 2007. Though to be fair, it’s true that Bud Light and Budweiser have enjoyed the top two spots, if off and on, for quite some time.

But the story isn’t so much about Coors Light being up (they were, but only 0.8%). What’s more interesting is that Budweiser was down 4.6%, which had more to do with the switch in positions. InBev seems to be struggling with the A-B core brands ever since they took over Anheuser-Busch. It can’t help that they’ve laid off countless employes, bullied suppliers and lost a great deal of goodwill through their cost-cutting way of doing business. They don’t seem to have the same relationship with consumers that the company did when it was run by the Busch family. And while the big breweries are losing ground to craft beer overall, ABI seems to losing more. So it makes sense that another brand would pick up the slack, catapulting Coors Light into the number two position, a spot Avis once upon a time used to great effect in their advertising. Maybe we’ll see Coors do something similar. “Coors Light is No. 2 in beer. We try harder.

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Yuengling Becomes Biggest American Brewery

by Jay Brooks on January 13, 2012 · 8 comments

in Breweries,News

yuengling-eagle
According to new estimated beer sales data for 2011 from Beer Marketer’s Insights, Yuengling Brewery in Pottsville, Pennsylvania has now eclipsed the Boston Beer Co. (makers of Samuel Adams) to become the biggest American brewery. Yuengling’s area newspaper, the Lehigh Valley’s The Morning Call, had the story this morning. The numbers shake out like this:

Yuengling sold 2.5 million barrels of beer in 2011, up 17 percent from the previous year, according to Beer Marketer’s Insights in Suffern, N.Y., a magazine that tracks the beer industry. Boston Beer sold 2.4 million barrels in 2011, the magazine estimated.

Boston Beer, a public company, has yet to release final sales for 2011. Beer Marketer’s Insights based its estimate on Boston Beer sales in the first three quarters and the company’s own sales forecast for the fourth quarter.

Even if Boston Beer had a surprisingly good fourth quarter, it wouldn’t close the gap with Yuengling, said Eric Shepard, editor of Beer Marketer’s Insights.

The Morning Call also created the chart below to illustrate the shift in sales between the two companies over the last five years.

yuengling-vs-boston-beer-2010

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binge-barney
This is one of those things that’s increasingly pissing me off, because it avoids real problems that some people have with alcohol in favor of trying to turn individual problems into an epidemic. It’s not. If anything, overall consumption of alcohol is decreasing. But it’s hard to get funding, finance addiction clinics and raise money to fight the scourge of alcohol if you don’t make the situation sound as dire as possible.

Take binge drinking, for example. ABC News just did a story (thanks to Julia Herz for tweeting it) about a “new” report claiming that 38 million Americans “binge drink an average four times a month.” Their story, entitled CDC: Millions of Americans are Binge Drinkers, details how the CDC is claiming that 1 in 6 “adults binge drinks about four times a month, and on average the largest number of drinks consumed is eight.” Not only that, but this is apparently on the rise. Here’s what the CDC website has to say.

New estimates show that binge drinking is a bigger problem than previously thought. More than 38 million U.S. adults binge drink, about 4 times a month, and on average the largest number of drinks consumed is eight. Binge drinking is defined as consuming four or more drinks for women and five or more drinks for men over a short period of time.

In the ABC report, Dr. Fulton Crews, director of the Center for Alcohol Studies at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill is quoted in what must be one of the most out-of-touch statements ever made on this subject. “But most people don’t realize that binge drinking is unhealthy.” Seriously? Is there anyone who hasn’t been bombarded with neo-prohibitionist propaganda, whether it’s our government, MADD, Alcohol Justice or some other anti-alcohol group. My kids started receiving the message literally in kindergarten, before they were even able to process it. There isn’t a man or woman alive who believes that drinking too much is good for you.

What people might not know is that what it means to be a “binge drinker” is not as concrete as these “reports” insist. How binge drinking is defined keeps changing, and always it’s narrowing, pulling more people into the circle of binge drinkers, not because they’re suddenly drinking more, but because how it’s defined has changed. I don’t want to repeat myself too much, but I detailed some of the history of this transformation a couple of years ago, in two posts entitled Inflating Binge Drinking Statistics and Son of Binge Drinking Statistics Inconsistencies. And the year before that I wrote about it in Inventing Binge Drinking. What’s clear is that binge drinking went from something somewhat vague — you knew it when you saw it — to ever more specific definitions, the kind that could be quantified and used to alarm people, and, by no small coincidence, be used by anti-alcohol folks in their propaganda.

So yet again the definition seems to be changing. The actual number of “too many” drinks has been somewhat fixed for the last few years at 5 for a man and 4 for a woman. But what keeps changing is the period of time. Initially it was “in a row,” then “within a few hours.” This latest CDC “report” says “in a sitting” and “over a short period of time,” which conceivably could be almost any length of time. At least the ABC report mentions this inconsistency, noting that the definition of the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, says the alcohol must be consumed in “two hours or less.” That works out to a beer every thirty minutes for a woman, and for a man, one every 24 minutes.

But what’s also absent from their definition of binge drinking is weight. The definition of being considered drunk is always expressed as a calculation combining time, the amount of alcohol consumed and the weight of the person drinking it. But binge drinking never takes that into account, apart from dividing up gender, presumably under the premise that men are generally bigger than women. That reality, of course, is not true in every case. And it may be indelicate to say so, but with our obesity issues as a nation, in theory it should be taking us longer to actually get drunk today than it did twenty years ago. But the reality is that a 200-pound man will take longer to get drunk than a 120-pound man. The same amount of alcohol will effect the two differently. So why should both be defined as binge drinkers if one becomes inebriated but the other does not?

And frankly, there’s another elephant in the room that troubles me, but is rarely, if ever, talked about. If you’re an adult and choose to drink 5 beers in a row, are not driving, and are not in any other way putting yourself or others at risk, why shouldn’t you be allowed to go a little crazy once in a while? You are, actually. It’s not illegal. Although neo-prohibitionists might not like it, there’s nothing to stop you from going on a bender if you feel like it. You shouldn’t be made to feel guilty about it. If it gets out of hand, your friends and family will likely step in. If it doesn’t so what? Who are you hurting? But every time these “reports” come out, the implication is that binge drinking is bad no matter what. But not all bingeing is the same, especially as they now define it. The average beer dinner runs to at least five courses (unless Sean Paxton is doing it), meaning that every single person attending such a beer dinner is considered a dangerous “binge drinker” by the CDC and other government agencies. Is that rational or realistic? Of course not. That’s entirely different from a person who bellies up to the bar and downs five shots of rotgut in rapid succession. Yet both are considered equally dangerous and costing society untold millions of dollars. It’s absurd.

Here’s some more of the statistical data, which it should be noted was complied through a telephone poll, from the CDC’s press release:

As reported in this month’s Vital Signs, the CDC found that those who were thought less likely to binge drink actually engage in this behavior more often and consume more drinks when they do. While binge drinking is more common among young adults aged 18–34 years, binge drinkers aged 65 years and older report binge drinking more often—an average of five to six times a month. Similarly, while binge drinking is more common among those with household incomes of $75,000 or more, the largest number of drinks consumed on an occasion is significantly higher among binge drinkers with household incomes less than $25,000—an average of eight to nine drinks per occasion, far beyond the amount thought to induce intoxication.

Adult binge drinking is most common in the Midwest, New England, the District of Columbia, Alaska, and Hawaii. On average, however, the number of drinks consumed when binge drinking is highest in the Midwest and southern Mountain states (Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah), and in some states— such as Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina—where binge drinking was less common.

But perhaps where this absurdity becomes most evident is in one of the CDC’s suggestions on how to combat binge drinking, which they list under the heading “what you can do.” Here’s the suggestion: “Follow the U.S. Dietary Guidelines on alcohol consumption; if you choose to drink, do so in moderation — no more than one drink per day for women and no more than two drinks per day for men.” Except those are NOT the most recent USDA dietary guidelines. Not even close. The 2010 guidelines “defines ‘low-risk’ drinking as no more than 14 drinks a week for men and 7 drinks a week for women with no more than 4 drinks on any given day for men and 3 drinks a day for women.” So that’s two government agencies that can’t agree on safe levels of consumption, and one that’s essentially lying about it to bolster their own point of view. The UK has had similar problems with their guidelines, when it was revealed a few years ago that their government just made up the safe guidelines, which then became carved in stone for the next twenty or more years, despite being literally plucked out of thin air.

Before the angry comments start flooding in again, I should point out that I don’t believe that binge drinking is always a good idea, or that people should do it all the time. I’m not arguing in favor of it. However, I do believe one does have the right to go on a binge if they feel like it (and as long as they’re being safe and aren’t doing so frequently enough to alarm those people closest to them). I do believe that how the CDC and others define binge drinking is ludicrous and does more harm than good. By making almost everyone a binge drinker through their ever-narrowing definition, they’re avoiding dealing with the serial binge drinkers who really are hurting themselves, and possibly others around them. This does nothing to combat the people who really need help. All it does is demonize all alcohol drinkers, making us all the same, which even the most jaded neo-prohibitionist has to admit, we’re not. It’s not how many drinks one has, or over what period of time, it comes down to how one handles themselves in that situation. If you’re a safe and responsible drinker, none of the rest of that even matters. Drink by example, that’s my new motto.

UPDATE: One of the biggest problems with studies like this is how uncritically they’re reported by the mainstream media. The most common way a press release like this one is used is by taking it and maybe changing around the words slightly but essentially just regurgitating it wholesale, not doing any follow up or critically examining it, and accepting all of it without question. That’s not what journalism should be, but in many cases that’s what it’s become, sad to say. Case in point is The Daily’s piece on it, Binge There, Done That. On the plus side, there’s this cool infographic they created based on the data from the telephone polls that the CDC conducted. On the negative side, there’s no key to the data, but the report mentions that it’s the “percent of the population” that are binge drinkers.

120112-binge-drinking

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Brewing Up: WSJ Beer Sales Infographic

December 29, 2011

The Wall Street Journal, through their WSJ News Graphics twitter feed, posted the following graphic on TwitPic, showing yearly beer sales through November 2011. This data is from Nielsen and the Brewers Association. A couple of weeks ago I posted similar numbers, but with data from Symphony IRI, in Beer Sales By Style Through Thanksgiving. [...]

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Ownership Of Beer Brands & Varieties 2010

December 18, 2011

A couple of years ago, shortly after Anat Baron released her film Beer Wars, people kept asking her which big beer companies owned which beer brands. In December 2009, she put together a list of Who owns what? That inspired to me took take a closer look myself, and that produced my own list, The [...]

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Breweries Per Capita By State 2010

December 17, 2011

I recently stumbled upon this nice infographic showing Breweries Per Capita By State 2010 based on data compiled by the Brooklyn Growler. It was created by an assistant professor at Michigan State University, Phillip H. Howard, with help from a Ginger Ogilvie. The size of the circles neatly shows the relative number of breweries in [...]

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Beer Sales By Style Through Thanksgiving

December 11, 2011

MC Basset, publishers of the Beer Bible — better known by its official title, “The Essential Reference of Domestic Brewers and Their Bottled Brands” — in their monthly e-mail blast, Style Trends, “provided a snapshot of (YTD) beer sales by beer style.” The data they use was compiled by the Symphony IRI Group (IRI), using [...]

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Top 8 Beer Sales Days

November 26, 2011

This two-year old SlashFood article showed up in my Paper.li today, retweeted by a brewery I follow. The article, Super Bowl Sunday — The 8th Biggest Beer Day of the Year? questions the list of the top eight “Holidays/Events for Beer.” The list was complied by Nielsen, and as he points out is “combined beer [...]

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Declines Of The British Pub Slowing?

November 20, 2011

In September, the British Beer & Pub Association released information regarding pub closures in the UK. Back in the 1970s more than 90% of all beer consumed in Britain was bought from the “on trade” — pubs and clubs. According to the British Beer & Pub Association this ratio had fallen to 51% from pubs [...]

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MADD Rates The States

November 17, 2011

According to a press release sent out by the neo-prohibitionist organization MADD yesterday, it’s the five-year anniversary of the launching of their Campaign to Eliminate Drunk Driving® program, which you can tell is all about the results since they went to the trouble to get a “registered trademark” on the name. I also find it [...]

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Fomenting Female Fear

November 16, 2011

The purported scientific journal Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research has just published another doozy, this one entitled The Legacy of Minimum Legal Drinking Age Law Changes: Long-Term Effects on Suicide and Homicide Deaths Among Women. The idea was to compare people drinking before the age was raised to 21 with when 18-year olds could still [...]

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Societal Costs vs. Personal Costs For Alcohol

November 3, 2011

At first glance I thought my pals at Alcohol Justice (AJ) got their hooks in the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), because I don’t know anyone better at making up behaviors that cry out for personal responsibility that are ascribed to society (for the cost) and business (for the fault). Their absurd “charge [...]

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We Are The 5%

October 27, 2011

While I support the Occupy Wall Street movement, this is something even nearer and dearer to my heart. I don’t know who came up with it, I saw it when Firestone Walker tweeted it, along with the hashtag #OccupythePub and the simple message: “Craft beer drinkers unite. We might only be 5% of the market [...]

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