Last year at this time, I made my usual five predictions for the 2008 beer year. Let’s see how I did.

 
The hops and malt shortages will continue to plague the industry throughout 2008 and may even grow worse.

My Score: A
This one wasn’t too much of a stretch, of course, though things did begin to calm down somewhat with the 2008 harvest.

 
Beer prices will go up, that’s a fact not a prediction. The real question is whether or not beer consumers will be willing to pay more and, if so, how much more?

My Score: A
Initial sales figures do seem to bear out that consumers are willing to pay a little bit more for craft beer. The growth figures by dollars remained in double digits, though with higher prices, it would have more surprising if they hadn’t. Volume growth did slow a little bit to 6.5% but was still better than the mainstream macro brands.

 
Distributor consolidation will increase and will continue to make things difficult for small brewers trying to bring their beer to market or increase their distribution to new areas.

My Score: A+
This was pretty much the number one topic at the NBWA Convention with Miller and Coors in arbitration and major import companies trying to figure out where they’d land. With InBev looking to make deep cuts to pay for acquiring Anheuser-Busch, there will likely be more distributors for sale and other shake-ups still to come in 2009.

 
Mergers among big multi-national beer companies will continue and at least one or two big such announcements will be made in 2008.

My Score: A+
I’d say this hunch came through with flying colors.

 
Neo-Prohibitionists will continue to step up attacks on alcohol generally and to specifically and inexplicably target beer.

My Score: A
This one was probably a little too predictable, but I was still surprised by how aggressive these chuckleheads became in 2008, attacking Santa Claus, alcopops and trying to get beer saddled with new and higher excise taxes.

Overall Score: A
I did better this year than last, though in retrospect I think I didn’t exactly go out on a limb with any of my prediction, taking a pretty safe route. At least it feels that way in retrospect. I think I’ll have to try harder this year to make less predictable predictions. See you next year!

A friend sent me this comic strip from Argyle Sweater by Scott Hilburn. It exploits the concept of beer goggles for comedic effect. The strip ran four days ago on 12.27.

 
There’s a line in another comic strip, a favorite of mine — Bizarro by Dan Piraro — that this comic made me immediately think of. It goes something like this. There are three people, each espousing their philosophy relating to glass that’s half liquid, half air. “As a pessimist, I say ‘the glass is half-empty,’ as a optimist, I say ‘the glass is half-full,” as an optometrist, ‘I say what the heck difference does it make?'”

As the year winds down yet again — wow, I’m feeling a weird sense of Deja Vu. Didn’t I just say that last year? — everybody and his brother has a top ten list for the year and I’m still no different. It helps, I think, to stop and reflect on what happened over the previous year which puts the whole year in perspective and makes it easier to prepare for the coming one. So here are my choices for the top ten beer stories of 2008.
 

Retro Beers’ Return: While this has been going on before, two high-profile old beers returned this year, both courtesy of Pabst trying to recreate the success they’ve had with Pabst Blue Ribbon. In January, they revived Hawaii’s iconic Primo. Later they resurrected bottled Schlitz in the Chicago area, with plans to roll it out wider. As one of the biggest beer brands in American brewing history, this one seemed like a no-brainer, but I haven’t heard of it taking on the kind of mystique that PBR has achieved. Also, a brewery in my Pennsylvania hometown brought back Reading Premium, which I confess did fill me with nostalgia.

Beer On Television: There were an unprecedented number of shows either airing on television or in development this year. From Dirty Jobs going to Yakima, Washington to pick hops to How Stuff Works breezily covering beer, at least TV started to pay attention to its huge audience of beer drinkers. I personally was involved with the shooting of two shows this year, one for Sacramento PBS and the other for Reason TV, plus consulted in varying degrees on at least three other television projects in development. That suggests to me that there are many more also being developed, too. And one that was shot last year, I understand is still shopping for a buyer.

Saranac Brewery Fire: Brewery fires in the 19th century were a fact of life, the sort of thing that was more “when” than “if.” They happened with alarming frequency but became relegated to the history books by modern architecture, new building codes and materials that were less flammable. When New York’s F.X. Matt Brewery in Utica caught fire due to a welding incident, it was a potent reminder how fragile these old structures really still are.

Philly Beer Week: My friends at Philly Beer Week showed us all how it could be done, when they impressively launched their series of events in March. There are now countless more “beer weeks” taking place or being planned across the country, at least in Indiana, Ohio, New York, Oregon, Syracuse, and San Francisco, not to mention the all-encompassing American Craft Ber Week. And Chicago and Colorado are rumored to be developing their own celebratory beer weeks. With 52 weeks in a year, there’s still plenty of room for more beer weeks. While some of these pre-dated Philly’s efforts, what the City of Brotherly Love did was take it to a new level, get unprecedented media attention and support and impress the hell out of anyone who witnessed it.

Budweiser American Ale: After years of double-digit growth by craft brewers and a slowing growth rate for the macro lagers, Anheuser-Busch launched its biggest assault to date, a nationwide rollout of an ale under the Budweiser brand name. Having tried it several times, it’s an inoffensive beer with only slightly more flavor than regular Budweiser, not something I’d choose to drink. But with A-B’s marketing muscle and ability to get their products distributed and place on store shelves, this one has the potential to steal sales from actual craft beer. I say actual, because the most insidious facet of the American Ale’s marketing barrage, along with Michelob, is the tagline “Crafting A Better Beer,” which to me seems like their trying to steal the perception of these beers being made by actual craft brewers. If you use the typical meaning of “craft” as something made by hand or involving small and artistic manufacture, then it’s hard to see how beers made in vats the size of Montana could ever be considered being “crafted.”

Neo-Prohibitionists Tactics Turn More Aggressive: I’ve long thought Neo-Prohibitionists to be capable of all manner of unsavory tactics with the goal more important than the means used to realize it. This year I think they really showed that “by any means necessary” approach to be true as they bullied their way into attacking alcopops, University Deans, state legislatures and even Santa Claus. In at least thirty states, they’re trying hard to raise the excise tax on beer. They’re unrelenting, well-funded and out of their gourds; a lethal combination. Now they’re showing themselves to be aggressive bullies and thugs, too.

The 75th Anniversary of Prohibition’s Repeal: With the Neo-Prohibitionists at the gate, the 75th Anniversary of the repeal of Prohibition was an important opportunity to celebrate what we’re all fighting to keep from happening again. The mainstream media ran countless stories about Prohibition’s repeal and there were many Op-Ed pieces about it, too. All year long, the beer industry used it to remind everybody that responsible beer drinking is a cherished part of society and to prohibit it completely would be as much of a mistake today as it was almost a century ago.

Beer in Politics: With a high profile Presidential election, every candidate tried to be the one ordinary citizens would want to sit down and have a beer with. There were numerous photo ops of candidates doing just that in neighborhood bars all over the country. Several craft brewers took it a step farther, creating special beers for the election. But with John McCain’s wife owning an A-B distributorship — indeed, most of their wealth came from this source — beer in politics became the subject of much speculation and scrutiny.

Merger Mania: It’s the way of big business, and this year it his the beer industry hard. One of last year’s biggest stories, the merger of Miller Brewing and Coors was approved by the Federal government on June 5 and the U.S. was down to two giant beer companies. In late January, a consortium of Carlsberg and Heineken bid on Scottish & Newcastle (itself the product of an earlier merger) and in March it was approved by shareholders. At the end of April, Magic Hat and Pyramid Breweries also merged.

InBev Buys Anheuser-Busch: One merger outstripped all of the others combined and there’s little doubt this was the story of the year. Rumored as early as February (and really for a year or more before that), InBev made their first bid June 11, and the media attention took off and has hardly stopped yet. We heard from very part of society on this one, from opportunist politicians to blue collar jingoists and even editorial cartoonists. Everyone had an opinion about this one, and, surprisingly, many thought it wouldn’t effect them at all, but this story will continue to have a ripple effect through every aspect of the beer industry for years to come. It’s over, yet it’s not over. Just before Christmas, the new A-B InBev started laying off employees in St. Louis. Distributor shakeups are still ongoing. We’ll be hearing about this one for some time to come.

And what will next year bring? See tomorrow’s post with my predictions for the beer industry in 2009.

If you’ve spent anytime around BJCP judges or hardcore homebrewing types, you’ve probably heard the conversation inevitably turn to the name Bill Slack. Slack used to be the treasurer of the judge-certifying organization, but was shown the door after it was discovered that he’d helped himself to at least $31,000 of the group’s money (and more likely closer to $64,000). The case has been winding through the courts for some time now, and just before Christmas, the BJCP got an early present, as Slack was finally sentenced, essentially ending the proceedings.

Slack plead guilty in September. He could have received as much as 20 years in prison, though federal guidelines suggested 10-26 months. Instead, Slack received a more rare “intermittent” sentence in which he’ll spend one week each month for a year behind bars. Following that he’ll be on probation for five years, and will have to pay the BJCP back $43,139 in restitution.

I never met the Nashua, New Hampshire man, but according to the story in the Nashua Telegraph, he sounds like he may have been something of a nut job. In 1998, he was arrested on an unrelated charge, when he “point[ed] a shotgun at a teenage Telegraph carrier who was trying to collect money for his delivery route.” You’ve got to watch out for those newspaper delivery boys or they’ll rob you blind. And stealing is better left to the professionals.

Over at Real Beer’s Holiday Blog again, I posted a last minute gift idea that I thought I’d pimp here too, because I’m so impressed with it. British beer writer and historian Martyn Cornell published an e-book entitled Amber, Gold & Black: The Story of Britain’s Great Beers. It’s only available as a pdf so you can buy it online right now at the Corner Pub and have it in plenty of time for Christmas.

And not only is it easy to buy online, but it’s one of best books on beer styles ever written, the result of years of painstaking research that shatters many of the myths surrounding the origins of famous beer styles like Porters and India Pale Ales.

Chapters cover sixteen different beer styles and go into great detail about each one of them. Did I mention it’s also a pleasure to read? And it’s filled with photographs, graphics, beer labels and old brewery advertisements. No matter how much you think you know about beer, you’ll learn a great deal from Cornell’s efforts. And did I mention it’s a mere fiver? At just five pounds, it may well be the bargain of the year, too. Seriously, you should buy this book. One for yourself and at least one as a gift. It’s that good.

Here’s more information from the publisher:

Amber, Gold and Black, The Story of Britain’s Great Beers, by the award-winning beer writer Martyn Cornell, is the most comprehensive history of British beer styles of all kinds ever written, the true stories behind Porter, Bitter, Mild, Stout, IPA, Brown Ale, Burton Ale, Old Ale, Barley Wine, and all the other beers produced in Britain.

This ebook is a celebration of the depths of British beer, a look at the roots of the styles we enjoy today, as well as those ales and beers we have lost, and a study into how the liquids that fill our beer glasses, amber gold and black, developed over the years.

Astonishingly, this is the first book devoted solely to looking at the unique history of the different styles of beer produced in Britain.

If you read about beer online a lot, you may already know Cornell’s work, though perhaps not his name. Martyn Cornell also writes online as The Zythophile, easily one of the most informative and interesting beer blogs on the planet.