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Don’t Let Facts Get In Your Way

July 7, 2010 By Jay Brooks

marin-institute
Regular Bulletin readers know how I feel about the Marin Institute. They style themselves as a “watchdog” group but in reality they’re a run of the mill anti-alcohol, neo-prohibitionist group. I often accuse them of going to great lengths to distort facts or manufacture reality to further their cause, taking an ends justify the means approach to everything they do. The “charge for harm” nonsense they’re trying to foist on San Francisco is a prime example, but today witnessed an even clearer example of how far they’ll go in bending reality to their will.

The USDA has released their updated version of the Dietary Guidelines For Americans 2010, where they looked at more recent research regarding food and beverages of all kinds, updating the 2005 edition (it’s regularly updated every five years). Well, this is bad news for the anti-alcohol folks, because recent science has been revealing more and more health benefits for the moderate consumption of alcohol, and so not surprisingly, that’s what is reflected in the new guidelines. But the Marin Institute has never been one to let facts stand in their way, and so they’ve wasted no time in criticizing the report’s findings and asking their unquestioning faithful to do likewise, calling the whole thing “dangerous” and “unscientific,” despite the fact that the whole report is based on science and each study relied upon is cited in the bibliography. It’s laughable that they’d call it “unscientific” while they themselves just shout it down and spread propaganda and utterly nonfactual claims about why they don’t like its conclusions. To them, it’s only science if they agree with the results. To me, that’s far more dangerous than anything in the report.

So what does this dangerous report say? It’s Chapter 7 that tackles alcohol and it’s fairly balanced from my point of view, and probably would be for any reasonable person. It talks about both the risks of over-consumption and the benefits of moderate drinking. It’s quite cautious in making any affirmative recommendations. There were also some interesting statistics. For example, I’d often heard that about a third of adults don’t drink alcohol, but a recent survey revealed that 76% of men and 65% of women had consumed alcohol in the past year. Most compelling was the decision to change the definition of moderate drinking from a daily standard to a weekly one, and to raise the daily recommendations from 2/1 (men/women) to 4/3.

The recent release of Rethinking Drinking by the National Institutes of Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA), provides guidelines that are consistent, in part, with the 2005 Dietary Guidelines, but also add additional guidance on weekly patterns of consumption. This NIAAA booklet, which is also designed to help individuals drink less if they are heavy or “at risk drinkers,” defines “low-risk” drinking as no more than 14 drinks a week for men and 7 drinks a week for women with no more than 4 drinks on any given day for men and 3 drinks a day for women (NIAAA, 2009).

The 2010 Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee (DGAC) largely agreed with this definition of moderation from the NIAAA because it implied that consumption was based on daily intake averaged over the week and also because the NIAAA guideline was generally consistent with the recommendation from the 2005 Dietary Guidelines.

Not surprisingly, this caused the Marin Institute to go apoplectic. Of course, the definition of “binge drinking” has been five drinks in a single session, which is laughingly absurd, especially so now in light of four being considered within the bounds of moderation. The five-drink-standard branded every single person who attends a five-course beer dinner a binge drinker, which is utter nonsense.

dietary-guidelines-2010

The Dietary Guidelines also asked some interesting questions about the effects of moderate drinking, and reports some findings that the anti-alcohol groups will have a hard time dismissing, and in fact any rebuttal of them is so far missing from their complaints. For example:

What is the Relationship between Alcohol Intake and Cognitive Decline with Age?

Conclusion

Moderate evidence suggests that compared to non-drinkers, individuals who drink moderately have a slower cognitive decline with age. Although limited, evidence suggests that heavy or binge drinking is detrimental to age-related cognitive decline.

Implications

Alcohol, when consumed in moderation, did not quicken the pace of age-related loss of cognitive function. In most studies, it was just the opposite—moderate alcohol consumption, when part of a healthy diet and physical activity program, appeared to help to keep cognitive function intact with age.

They also did a meta-study on the effects of moderate drinking on total mortality, meaning how does responsible drinking do in creating a more or less healthy lifestyle. Predictably, it was found that a majority, if not all, of the studies examined show a positive correlation between moderate drinking and living longer and being more healthy.

Total Mortality. In most Western countries where chronic diseases such as CHD, cancer, stroke and diabetes are the primary causes of death, results from large epidemiological studies consistently show that alcohol has a favorable association with total mortality especially among middle age and older men and women. A recent updated meta-analysis of all-cause mortality demonstrated an inverse association between moderate drinking and total mortality (Di Castelnuovo, 2006). The relative risk of all-cause mortality associated with moderate drinking was approximately 0.80. The J-shaped curve, with the lowest mortality risk for men and women at the average level of one to two drinks per day, is likely due to the protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on CHD, diabetes and ischemic stroke as summarized in this chapter.

In other words, you’ll be healthier if you have one or two beers a day. But woe be to any brewery that might think to actually suggest that to a potential customer. That’s where the neo-prohibitionists are most worried. In the conclusion to their comments to the new dietary guidelines, the Marin Institute are very “concerned.” Here are some excerpts of their worrying, and my open letter response as to why they’re on the train to loony town.

There is no public health organization that recommends starting to drink alcohol for abstainers, or drinking more alcohol for current drinkers, as either a preventive behavior to address specific medical problems, or as a population-level primary prevention strategy.

Perhaps not, but there should be. The only reason there isn’t, is because organizations like the Marin Institute would treat such a recommendation as a declaration of war. Even though the facts indicate that moderate drinking is healthier than abstaining, nobody would dare to state the obvious conclusion to draw from that just because of how they’d react, in other words fear is the reason, not common sense.

Indeed, federal, state, local and community public health agencies, including Marin Institute, work tirelessly to address the tremendous physical, social, and economic harm caused by alcohol. Yet the Report sounds as if drinking alcohol is not only a suggested therapeutic option to discuss with one’s doctor, but also a general recommendation for all Americans to consider as part of an overall wellness plan.

It “sounds as if drinking alcohol is a therapeutic option” because it is. Alcohol does not cause the harm, too much alcohol may cause harm, but moderate consumption is beneficial. You just continuing to say the opposite of what’s true doesn’t make it any less so.

The Committee must be aware that the Report’s messages about alcohol consumption will be misinterpreted by the powerful corporations and trade organizations that sell and promote alcoholic beverages. The alcohol industry has a long history of exploiting the Dietary Guidelines for their benefit, and the suggestions contained in the Report lend themselves to further misuse. We are especially concerned that despite the Report’s caveats, the industry will use the new recommendations to promote alcohol consumption and increased consumption.

Don’t worry, you’re safe. Maybe you should relax and enjoy a frosty beverage; perhaps I could suggest a beer? You must think the alcohol companies are pretty stupid, despite how shrewd you usually paint them. With you “watchdogging” them, there’s no way any alcohol company could launch a campaign suggesting people start drinking or drinking more, even though the evidence points to the fact that it wouldn’t be a bad idea. At any rate, thanks to your predecessors after prohibition, the advertising guidelines already expressly forbid health claims, so as usual you’re worrying about nothing.

We also ask that the Committee revise the Report and subsequent Guidelines to send a much more cautionary, evidence-based message regarding alcohol consumption to the public. Finally, we recommend that the new Guidelines maintain the formulation of 2/1 per-day consumption of alcohol. We urge you to err on the side of caution when recommending safe alcohol consumption levels and behaviors to improve health and prevent harm.

Err on the side of caution? Let’s see, they reviewed the science and came to a conclusion you didn’t like. That’s not an error or not being cautious, it’s simply letting facts dictate what makes sense in terms of a policy of what’s best for the average person.

But your whole posturing, tantrum-filled press release and comments speak volumes about your real intentions. While an average person might look at those findings and think to themselves, “great, it’s good to be informed and know how eating and drinking certain things will affect me. Now I can make an informed decision on how to live my life.” But you look at that and instead cry, “I don’t like those finding, they must be wrong. There’s science behind it, but I don’t like the conclusions so the science must be wrong. I don’t like the recommendations, so they must be “dangerous.”

I know it’s nearly impossible for the Marin Institute or any similar organization to have an open mind and be reasonable about these sorts of things. Fanaticism is rarely compatible with reason or common sense. But I continue to marvel at how any organization who never misses an opportunity to call an alcohol company on not being truthful can themselves be so fast and loose with the truth. Lying to keep someone else truthful (or at least for a cause you believe in) seems completely immoral, or at least amoral, to me. If the facts are contrary to your point of view, maybe it’s your point of view that’s wrong? Maybe it’s time to question your assumptions? I know that’s not going to happen, but not letting the facts get in your way by just ignoring them or pretending they don’t exist or are wrong isn’t going to fool anybody except the people who you’ve hoodwinked already. And maybe that’s their point in the end, maybe it’s just about keeping the faithful faithful by telling them what they want to hear and appearing to fight their absurd fight. But I sure wish they’d let the facts get in their way.

Filed Under: Beers, Editorial, News, Politics & Law Tagged With: Prohibitionists, Science, Statistics

The Season For Saisons

July 7, 2010 By Jay Brooks

seasons
New York Magazine examines a dozen saisons — 4 imports and 8 craft — in ‘Tis the Saison . It’s a pretty good mix of saisons, though it’s too bad Odonata didn’t make the cut. Too new, I suppose. But I was very pleased to see Pretty Things’ Jack D’Or was included. I love that beer.

Filed Under: Beers Tagged With: Beer Styles, Mainstream Coverage

Beer In Ads #144: Schlitz, Real Gusto In A Can

July 6, 2010 By Jay Brooks

ad-billboard
Tuesday’s ad is also for Schlitz and is from the 1960s. It features a woman with an odd look on her face opening the pull-top cans, just because she likes to, or as it says in bold print, “I just love to open ’em.” There are 14 open cans of beer shown in the ad. What do you think, did she drink them all?

schlitz-60s-2

Filed Under: Art & Beer, Beers Tagged With: Advertising, Cans, History, Schlitz

Fight The Fee

July 6, 2010 By Jay Brooks

cahj
If you read my rebuttal to San Francisco Chronicle columnist C.W. Nevius support of the proposed fee on alcohol in the city, then perhaps you recall that he interviewed the California Alliance of Hospitality Workers so he could appear to show both sides of the argument. It was not really in any way balanced, and in fact I think he used them as a straw man, though he did so in a way that I believe was incorrect at any rate.

Happily, the California Alliance of Hospitality Workers is fighting back, and is trying to get people to contact their local supervisor in San Francisco to have city residents ask their politicians to oppose the proposed fee. The e-mail to use is Board.of.Supervisors@sfgov.org. If you live in San Francisco and drink alcohol in moderation and responsibly, please contact your supervisor and ask him or her to oppose the ordinance.

cal-alliance-hjobs

You can also see their response to the proposed ordinance, Supervisors’ Short-Sighted Proposal to Tax Alcohol Will Hurt Hard-Working San Franciscans. They’ve also set up a Facebook page.

One additional important fact that they mention is that the required Nexus Study has still not been filed or made public. With the hearing to vote on the proposed ordinance a week away — July 14 — at the very least that’s stacking the deck and at the worst is complete bullshit.

Here’s just a few more reasons why this tax is unfair, particularly to craft beer:

  • This legislation taxes beer by alcohol strength, putting a huge and cumbersome burden on brewpubs, self-distributing small brewers and wholesalers because each and every beer is taxed at a different rate.
  • Craft brewers are not part of the problem. Craft beer is priced high and is a product of quality, not quantity. Craft beer drinkers do not abuse their beverages.
  • With the “margin chain” and price point consideration, the tax will be much higher than five cents a drink. At retail off-premise, the increase will be about 50-75 cents a six-pack and on premise about 75 cents to a dollar per pint.
  • Brewers are already heavily taxed. Small brewers already pay a state and a federal excise tax in addition to all other business and sales taxes. Combined, about 40-44% of the cost of a beer already goes to taxes.
  • Higher drink prices in a singular market such as San Francisco will lead consumers to not come into the City for dining and entertainment.
  • Higher taxes will lead to lost jobs, off-setting the new tax.
  • The proposed tax would hinder the ability of craft brewers in the City to grow, employ more people and positively contribute to City’s economic recovery.
  • Higher taxes will mean higher prices which means lower sales. If this tax in imposed, sales will decrease and craft brewers will not be able to sustain the ability to continue full employment or continue to invest in our business and community.

Filed Under: Beers, Editorial, News, Politics & Law Tagged With: California, San Francisco, Taxes

What (Pete) Brown Can Do For You

July 6, 2010 By Jay Brooks

Okay, I’m just having a bit of fun with UPS’ slogan and Pete Brown, UK beer writer. But today Pete has a nice overview of each of the big six beer companies that do business in the UK, entitled The Big Boys. It’s definitely worth a read. He talks primarily about their marketing efforts in the UK, but you get a sense of how he feels about the pros and cons of each company and the overall feeling that they’re not all the same.

Filed Under: Breweries, Editorial Tagged With: Big Brewers, Marketing, UK

Like Real Estate, Next Session About Location, Location, Location

July 6, 2010 By Jay Brooks

session-the
Our 42nd Session will be hosted by Derrick Peterman, from Ramblings of a Beer Runner. He’s chosen “A Special Place, A Special Beer” as his topic, which Derrick describes geographically:

The Session provides a unique opportunity to explore this connection between the beer in our glasses and the place it comes from with perspectives from all over the world

So I ask for this 42nd Session that you write about a special place in your life, and a beer or brewery that connects you to that place. It can be the beer from your childhood home, a place you once lived, your current hometown, a memorable vacation you once took, or a place you’ve always wanted to go to but never had the chance. Please take a few moments to think about the how the beer connects you to this place, and share this with us. Of course, the definition of “place” is rather open ended, and in some cases, highly debatable, so it will be interesting to see the responses on what constitutes a place.

So look around the world and then bring home your own post for the next Session, on Friday, August 6.

Filed Under: The Session Tagged With: Announcements

The Secret History Of Alcohol?

July 6, 2010 By Jay Brooks

conspiracy
I’m not quite sure what to make of this conspiracy theory, sent in by a friend and loyal reader (thanks Jeff). While I’m a natural skeptic, I do think at least parts of many conspiracy theories contain a grain of truth. But here’s one I’ve never encountered, and I’ve read a bit about Prohibition.

According to Hidden History, and specifically Rockefeller, Ford and the Secret History of Alcohol, at least part of the reason prohibition was successful had to do with business and money — are you shocked or surprised? — and a desire to eliminate the competition. To wit:

John D. Rockefeller, under the ruse of Christian temperance, gave 4 million dollars to a group of old ladies and told them to fight for Prohibition (they successfully used the money to buy off Congress). Why? Rockefeller owned Standard Oil, the main company pushing gas as an alternative fuel to alcohol.

Essentially, it killed ethanol as an alternative fuel, which has only been talked about again recently, at least in the mainstream media.

rockefeller

How true is this account? Beats me, but it’s got plenty of ancillary links to explore, such as this interesting one, Hydrocarbons versus carbohydrates: the continuing battle in the United States, at Before the Well Runs Dry. Who knows, but it’s fun to speculate.

Filed Under: Politics & Law, Related Pleasures Tagged With: History, Prohibitionists

Beer In Ads #143: Schlitz, That’s What I Call Real Beer

July 5, 2010 By Jay Brooks

ad-billboard
Monday’s ad is for Schlitz and will likely make anyone from CAMRA do a double take. Because the ad’s slogan is “That what I call real beer … no wonder it made Milwaukee famous.” But I don’t think most real ale or cask-conditioned fans are likely to agree. I’m not sure when the ads is from exactly, but given the scene I’d have to guess late 1940s or early fifties.

Schlitz-real_beer

Filed Under: Art & Beer, Beers Tagged With: Advertising, History, Schlitz

Manipulation Of The Crowd: Online Ratings

July 4, 2010 By Jay Brooks

science
The latest issue of Scientific American has an interesting article, Manipulation of the Crowd: How Trustworthy Are Online Ratings?, a topic of interest to any brewery who’s ever received a bad review from either Beer Advocate or Rate Beer. Intuitively, it’s seemed to me that the overall quality of the ratings on those sites have been improving as they’ve matured and built up the number of users and reviews.

According to Scientific American, the bad news is that while most review-driven websites don’t accurately reflect the expected statistical bell curve (which would imply their accuracy), the good news is that the beer reviews online prove the exception to the rule and are, in fact, more often fairly and reasonably accurate.

The philosophy behind such rating sites is known as the “crowdsourcing strategy” insofar as the “truest and most accurate evaluations will come from aggregating the opinions of a large and diverse group of people.” But according to Eric K. Clemons, at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, ratings sites like Amazon, TripAdvisor and Yelp “suffer from a number of inherent biases.”

  1. Disproportion: “People who rate purchases have already made the purchase. Therefore, they are disposed to like the product. ‘I happen to love Larry Niven novels,’ [professor Eric K.] Clemons says. “So whenever Larry Niven has a novel out, I buy it. Other fans do, too, and so the initial reviews are very high—five stars.” The high ratings draw people who would never have considered a science-fiction novel. And if they hate it, their spite could lead to an overcorrection, with a spate of one-star ratings.”
  2. Polarization: “People tend not to review things they find merely satisfactory. They evangelize what they love and trash things they hate. These feelings lead to a lot of one- and five-star reviews of the same product.”
  3. Oligarchy of the Enthusiastic: “A small percentage of users account for a huge majority of the reviews. These super-reviewers—often celebrated with ‘Top Reviewer’ badges and ranked against one another to encourage their participation—each contribute thousands of reviews, ultimately drowning out the voices of more typical users (95 percent of Amazon reviewers have rated fewer than eight products). ‘There is nothing to say that these people are good at what they do,’ [computer scientist Vassilis] Kostakos says. ‘They just do a lot of it.’ What appears to be a wise crowd is just an oligarchy of the enthusiastic.”

Yelp, the one I’ve heard more people consistently complain about, apparently has some of the worst transparency issues and there’s the “perception that the company itself might be manipulating the playing field.”

A separate look at Netflix user data, Dissecting the Netflix Dataset, found some of the same relationships in rating the films rented from Netflix. For example, the average rating for a film is 3.8 (out of 5), neatly fitting the average bell curve results, such as this study mentioned in Scientific American.

A controlled offline survey of some of these supposedly polarizing products revealed that individuals’ true opinions fit a bell-shaped curve—ratings cluster around three or four, with fewer scores of two and almost no ones and fives. Self-selected online voting creates an artificial judgment gap; as in modern politics, only the loudest voices at the furthest ends of the spectrum seem to get heard

A similar look at IMDb ratings, Mining gold from the Internet Movie Database, part 1: decoding user ratings, saw complimentary results and the same looking bell curve. The average rating on the IMDb was 6.2 (out of 10) and the median was 6.4.

It seems that the more popular a ratings website is, and consequently the more reviews it gets, the more reliable the results are, or at least the better they seem to fit the bell curve of expected distribution of reviews that usually result from non-online sources. The higher number of reviews, the more fringe reviews at either ends of the spectrum are less heavily weighed. Unless, of course, it just plain sucks or everyone agrees on how terrific it is, but that’s most likely a situation that’s pretty rare.

But, as I said at the outset, the good news is that those problem issues with online ratings are apparently not a problem for the beer ratings websites, which are specifically mentioned as an instance where the crowdsourcing model does work.

RateBeer.com, which has attracted some 3,000 members who have rated at least 100 beers each; all but the most obscure beers have been evaluated hundreds or thousands of times. The voluminous data set is virtually manipulation-proof, and the site’s passionate users tend to post on all beers they try—not just ones they love or hate.

I’m quite certain those numbers would be similar for Beer Advocate, too, of course, suggesting that for both of the most popular beer ratings websites, that the results have become reasonably reliable, especially for the beers that have been most heavily reviewed. For new beers with just a few reviews, obviously it wouldn’t automatically be as reliable, but the only way to build up reviews is start somewhere. And that’s where looking more carefully at the reviewers becomes more important. A review with only 5 reviews where all 5 reviewers are experienced would arguably be different from one where all 5 reviewers were rookies or had very little experience. Obviously, the number of reviews a person has done is no guarantee that his or her reviews are better or more reliable, but it stands to reason that anyone who takes something seriously and continues to practice it will improve over time. And like craft beer itself, the longer it’s been around, the better it gets. It’s nice to see some scientific support to confirm that intuition.

Filed Under: Beers, Editorial, Related Pleasures, Reviews Tagged With: Science

Beer In Art #83: Bob Kessel’s Charles Bukowski

July 4, 2010 By Jay Brooks

art-beer
Today’s works of art is part of a series of American Icons by Bob Kessel. It’s am abstract portrait of the writer Charles Bukowski, who was known to drink a little alcohol from time to time.

Bob_Kessel-charles_bukowski

Kessel writes of the portrait. “Appropriately, Buk is shown drinking a bottle of beer.” I love its simplicity of both palette — just red, white and blue plus yellow — and the imagery, capturing the essence of Bukowski in the portrayal of him hoisting a beer to his lips at a bar. It reminds me of a cross between Piet Mondrian and Roy Lichtenstein.

Below, it’s show with a frame to better see the white space intended to be around the exterior of the artwork. Limited edition prints are available of this, and other portraits from the series, American Icons.

Bob_Kessel-charles_bukowski-framed

To see more of Kessel’s work, check out his website and also his WordPress blog.

Also, below is a poem entitled Beer by Bukowski, from my Beer Poetry database.

Beer, by Charles Bukowski, from Love is A Mad Dog From Hell (1920 – 1994)

I don’t know how many bottles of beer
I have consumed while waiting for things
to get better
I don’t know how much wine and whisky
and beer
mostly beer
I have consumed after
splits with women—
waiting for the phone to ring
waiting for the sound of footsteps,
and the phone to ring
waiting for the sounds of footsteps,
and the phone never rings
until much later
and the footsteps never arrive
until much later
when my stomach is coming up
out of my mouth
they arrive as fresh as spring flowers:
“what the hell have you done to yourself?
it will be 3 days before you can fuck me!”

the female is durable
she lives seven and one half years longer
than the male, and she drinks very little beer
because she knows it’s bad for the figure.

while we are going mad
they are out
dancing and laughing
with horny cowboys.

well, there’s beer
sacks and sacks of empty beer bottles
and when you pick one up
the bottle fall through the wet bottom
of the paper sack
rolling
clanking
spilling gray wet ash
and stale beer,
or the sacks fall over at 4 a.m.
in the morning
making the only sound in your life.

beer
rivers and seas of beer
the radio singing love songs
as the phone remains silent
and the walls stand
straight up and down
and beer is all there is.

Filed Under: Art & Beer, Beers Tagged With: Connecticut, United States

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